Coffee market between costs, volumes and sensory expectations
In recent months, the coffee market has been going through significant shifts. Prices, availability, and consumer expectations are moving in different directions, creating both risks and opportunities for companies operating in the sector.
Arabica Coffee: Stock prices above US¢400/lb
Arabica coffee provides one of the clearest indicators of market change. Stock prices have recently broken the US¢400/lb threshold (Teixeira, M., & Samora, R. (2025, March 31)), marking a historic record. For companies and roasters, this means increasing difficulty in closing contracts at stable and predictable prices. The volatility is pushing many players to re-evaluate sourcing strategies and to diversify origins or blends.
Decrease in Global Volumes
The pressure on prices is closely linked to a decline in produced volumes worldwide. Two main factors are contributing:
- Climate change: rising temperatures and extreme weather conditions are reducing yields in many traditional producing countries.
- Pests and plant diseases: more frequent infestations further compromise harvests.
Because Arabica is more delicate, it has been hit harder than Robusta. This has widened the gap between the two species in terms of both availability and price.
Arabica vs Robusta: A sensory perspective
From a sensory perspective, Arabica has always been considered superior, with more complexity, acidity, and aromatic richness. Robusta, traditionally perceived as harsher and more bitter, is less appealing to consumers who value flavor sophistication.
However, new processes are emerging to improve the sensory profile of Robusta, reducing this gap and enabling brands to offer consumers a cost-effective option without compromising on taste.
Specialty coffee as a frontier
The growth of specialty coffee, whether Arabica or Robusta, shows that the market is not only about volumes and costs but also about value perception.
But what exactly is specialty coffee?
In general, it refers to coffee that reaches very high quality standards for the market it is intended for, defined from SCA in the last years as “a coffee or coffee experience that is recognized for its distinctive attributes, resulting in a higher value within the marketplace”. It can be Arabica or Robusta, but what sets it apart is the care in every step: where it is grown, how it is harvested, and how it is processed and its impact on social and environmental dimension.
For consumers, this means coffee with a richer taste and a clear story behind it. For producers and brands, it represents both differentiation and added value.
Specialty coffee thus becomes a frontier in two respects:
- Sustainability: highlighting responsible farming, fair prices and transparent sourcing.
- Better value to price: consumers are willing to pay more if they can get the experience they look for, understand the story, quality, and sensory features behind a product.
What this means for brands
Higher costs, lower volumes, and stronger sensory expectations are reshaping competition. Brands must balance sourcing and innovation with clear communication of quality and sustainability. The coffee market today is not just about trade and supply, but about a consumer culture where taste and values drive willingness to pay.
To better understand these shifts, it is useful to look at how preferences emerge in specific markets. For example, coffee preferences in the UK show a strong inclination toward milk-based beverages such as lattes, cappuccinos, and flat whites — choices that reveal how sensory expectations intertwine with broader lifestyle trends.
These examples highlight a deeper conclusion: the future of coffee depends on the ability of brands to connect market realities (costs and supply) with consumer expectations (taste and values). Those who succeed in this integration will be best positioned to remain competitive and build long-term loyalty.
Fonts:
- Teixeira, M., & Samora, R. (2025, March 31). Brazil’s coffee farmers turn to costly irrigation to quench global demand for the brew. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/brazils-coffee-farmers-turn-costly-irrigation-quench-global-demand-brew-2025-03-31/
- Financial Times. Coffee (Arabica) price information. Markets data. Retrieved from https://markets.ft.com/data/commodities/tearsheet/summary?c=Coffee+(Arabica)
- International Coffee Organization (ICO). (2025). Monthly Coffee Market Report – September 2025. Retrieved from https://www.ico.org/documents/cy2024-25/cmr-0925-e.pdf
- Specialty Coffee Association (SCA). What is Specialty Coffee? Retrieved from https://sca.coffee/research/what-is-specialty-coffee
- Coffee Quality Institute. (2019). Fine Robusta Standards and Protocols. Aliso Viejo, CA.
